ANALISIS PENGARUH UPAH MINIMUM DAN PERTUMBUHAN SEKTOR INDUSTRI TERHADAP PENYERAPAN TENAGA KERJA DIINDONESIA

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of minimum wages and industrial sector growth on labor absorption in Indonesia. As a vital element in economic development, employment issues in Indonesia face challenges in the form of a structural mismatch between labor force growth and the absorption capacity of the economic sector. This study uses secondary data in the form of an annual time series for the period 2010–2022 sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Ministry of Manpower, and the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM). The analysis results show a dual effect of the minimum wage; on the one hand, it increases national purchasing power, but on the other hand, aggressive increases in labor-intensive industrial centers have the potential to reduce labor absorption. Meanwhile, the industrial sector is experiencing a shift in elasticity where output growth is no longer comparable to labor absorption due to the transition to automation and capital-intensive industries in the era of the Industrial Revolution 4.0. The main challenge identified is the mismatch of skills, where the majority of the low-educated workforce struggles to adapt to the needs of digital technology and robotics. This study recommends the need for a differentiated wage policy based on sector characteristics and strengthening the quality of human resources through vocational training to face the threat of automation.